Investing

1. ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF (ARCA:SBIO)

AUM: US$80.23 million

Launched in December 2014, the ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF tracks small- and mid-cap biotech stocks that have one or more drugs in either Phase II or Phase III US FDA clinical trials. Its holdings must have a market cap between US$200 million and US$5 billion.

There are 100 holdings in this biotechnology fund, with about 60 percent being small- and micro-cap stocks. Its top holdings include Verona Pharma (NASDAQ:VRNA) at a weight of 5.31 percent, Alkermes (NASDAQ:ALKS) at 4.41 percent and Axsome Therapeutics (NASDAQ:AXSM) at 4.24 percent.

2. Tema Oncology ETF (NASDAQ:CANC)

AUM: US$63.67 million

The Tema Oncology ETF provides exposure to biotech companies operating in the oncology industry. It includes companies developing a range of cancer treatments, including CAR-T cell therapies and bispecific antibodies.

Launched in August 2023, there are 52 holdings in this biotechnology fund, of which about half are small- to mid-cap stocks and 4 percent are micro-cap stocks. Among its top holdings are Revolution Medicines (NASDAQ:RVMD) at a 6.05 percent weight, Roche Holding (OTCQX:RHHBF,SWX:RO) at a weight of 5.08 percent and Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) at 4.87 percent.

3. Tema GLP-1 Obesity and Cardiometabolic ETF (NASDAQ:HRTS)

AUM: US$51.5 million

Launched in November 2023, the Tema GLP-1 Obesity and Cardiometabolic ETF tracks biotech stocks with a focus on diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular diseases. The fund was renamed on March 25 from Tema Cardiovascular and Metabolic ETF. More than three-quarters of its holdings are based in the US.

There are 47 holdings in this biotechnology fund, with about 75 percent being large-cap stocks and 18 percent mid-cap. Its top holdings are Eli Lilly and Company at a 9.92 percent weight, Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) at 4.77 percent and AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) at 4.14 percent.

4. ProShares Ultra NASDAQ Biotechnology (NASDAQ:BIB)

AUM: US$44.19 million

The ProShares Ultra NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF was launched in April 2010 and is leveraged to offer twice daily long exposure to the broad-based NASDAQ Biotechnology Index, making it an ideal choice “for investors with a bullish short-term outlook for biotechnology or pharmaceutical companies.” However, analysts also advise investors with a low risk tolerance or a buy-and-hold strategy against investing in this fund due to its unique nature.

Of the 268 holdings in this ETF, the top biotech stocks in the ETF are Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) at a 6.06 percent weight, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX) at 5.99 percent and Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) at 5.84 percent. Additionally, over a third of its holdings are in United States Treasury Bills.

5. Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3x Shares (ARCA:LABD)

AUM: US$43.42 million

The Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3x Shares ETF is designed to provide three times the daily return of the inverse of the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index, meaning that it rises in value when the index falls and falls in value when it rises. Leveraged inverse ETFs are designed for short-term trading and are not suitable to hold long-term. They also carry a high degree of risk as they can be significantly affected by market volatility.

The top three life science holdings in this ETF are Exact Sciences (NASDAQ:EXAS) at a weight of 2.23 percent, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ALNY) at a weight of 2.15 percent and Neurocrine Biosciences (NASDAQ:NBIX) at 2.03 percent.

PGM supply constraints widen deficits

While all five PGMs were in physical deficit last year, overall mine supply did edge on 2 percent year-on-year.

However, Metals Focus notes that this figure masks underlying weaknesses.

Much of the gain stemmed from temporary factors, such as the release of work-in-process stockpiles, particularly in South Africa, which accounted for a significant portion of the PGMs inventory processed during the year.

Platinum mine supply rose 3 percent to 5.77 million ounces, mainly due to output from South Africa, whose production exceeded 4 million ounces for the first time since 2021. Yet stripping out the one-time work-in-process boost, global production was more than 1 million ounces below the 2010 to 2021 average of 14.95 million ounces.

For palladium, mine supply rose less than 1 percent, bolstered by modest gains in Russia and stock drawdowns in South Africa, even as Canadian output dropped 10 percent due to price pressure.

The report notes that production cuts in high-cost regions were inevitable, owing to closures like Sibanye-Stillwater’s (NYSE:SBSW) shutdown of Stillwater West and curtailed operations at East Boulder.

In total, platinum ended the year with a second consecutive shortfall. Palladium was short by 407,000 ounces, continuing a near-decade trend of tightness. Rhodium, ruthenium and iridium also closed the year with deficits of 178,000 ounces, 219,000 ounces and 49,000 ounces, respectively — an across-the-board supply squeeze not seen in years.

Demand for PGMs shifts under electrification and industrial dynamics

On the demand side, the automotive sector — the dominant consumer of PGMs — saw a 4 percent contraction in fabrication demand to 12.14 million ounces, the first such drop since the pandemic year of 2020.

The continued rise of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which do not use PGMs in their drivetrains, contributed to a 2 percent decline in catalyzed vehicle output. Although BEV growth slowed to 9 percent — its weakest since the technology gained mainstream traction — its market share still rose from 12 percent to 13 percent.

Hybrids, however, offered a bright spot for PGMs, with production jumping 28 percent and often requiring heavier PGM loadings than traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. This helped cushion demand for autocatalysts, particularly platinum, which saw slower rates of palladium substitution as the price gap narrowed.

Platinum demand, in contrast, overall fell by 2 percent to 7.79 million ounces. Automotive and industrial usage were also dragged down by a 27 percent plunge in chemical applications, particularly in China’s paraxylene sector.

But jewelry demand surged 9 percent — its strongest growth since 2019 — driven by India’s booming export orders and Japanese consumers shifting from gold due to its soaring price.

Ruthenium and iridium, the lesser-known PGMs, also saw rising industrial relevance.

Ruthenium demand surged by 20 percent — reaching its highest level since 2006 — fueled by China’s caprolactam chemical sector and artificial intelligence-driven growth in hard disk drive production.

Meanwhile, iridium demand jumped 15 percent to a record 298,000 ounces, driven by ballast water treatment systems, acetic acid output, and early stage copper foil applications.

Palladium, long buoyed by ICE reliance, saw total demand fall 4 percent to 9.75 million ounces.

Automotive fabrication dropped 5 percent, with thrifting and substitution playing an increasing role, though the latter slowed due to narrowing discounts with platinum. Industrial use remained stable, down less than 1 percent, with electronics up 1 percent amid recovering consumer tech and AI hardware growth.

Recycling gains traction, but can’t fill supply gap

Secondary supply helped offset falling mine output, with autocatalyst recycling up 9 percent year-on-year.

Metals Focus largely attributes this gain to higher vehicle scrappage rates, improved new car sales and aggressive recycling incentives in China. Still, recycling fell short of restoring equilibrium.

Platinum secondary supply rose just 1 percent as jewelry recycling remained weak, with Chinese and Japanese flows down due to sustained low prices and reduced scrap availability.

Palladium fared better with a 9 percent increase — its strongest growth in five years — again led by China, where palladium dominates catalytic converter formulations.

Yet, even with these gains, total recycling volumes were insufficient to offset underlying shortfalls. Jewelry scrap fell by 29 percent for platinum and 45 percent for palladium compared to 2021, underscoring a structural shift in the recycling base amid changing consumer behavior and metal substitution.

PGMs prices stabilize, but caution prevails

PGMs prices stayed fairly in 2024, with volatility restrained.

Platinum traded within a tight US$850 to US$1,100 per ounce band, hovering mostly from US$900 to US$1,000.

Palladium, despite ongoing bearish sentiment, found support at US$900 per ounce, while rhodium stabilized around US$4,400 per ounce after collapsing from highs above US$29,000 in 2021. Meanwhile, iridium fell 12 percent in price over the year, though bargain hunters helped maintain a floor around US$4,000 per ounce.

Ruthenium rebounded 24 percent from September lows, ending the year supported by robust Chinese demand.

While the PGMs markets appear to be finding their bottom, the Metals Focus report emphasizes that the risk of supply squeezes and price spikes remains.

Indeed, short positioning on the CME contributed to sporadic rallies, especially for palladium. Net managed money positions averaged 1.05 million ounces short for the year, peaking at 1.63 million ounces in August.

Metals Focus’ 2025 PGMs outlook

Looking ahead, 2025 is expected to continue many of 2024’s trends.

Physical deficits will persist, particularly in rhodium, ruthenium, and platinum. Above-ground stocks (AGS) remain elevated for platinum and palladium, muting potential price rallies, but continued mine cutbacks could shift this balance over time.

Forecasts suggest platinum will average US$970/oz, up slightly from 2024. Palladium is expected to average US$930, down 5 percent year-on-year, while rhodium may rise 8 percent to US$5,000, supported by its deficit and scarce above-ground reserves.

Ruthenium is forecast to jump 26 percent to US$550, with iridium expected to average US$4,100, a 14 percent drop driven largely by 2024’s elevated base.

In sum, 2024 marked a transitional year for the PGMs—one of normalization rather than expansion. Supply remains tight, demand is recalibrating in the face of technological shifts, and investors are returning cautiously.

Whether 2025 brings further recovery or renewed disruption for the collective will depend not just on markets—but on mines, metals, and momentum-shifting market sentiment.

Understanding silver supply and demand

The silver price surged in 2024, rising from around US$22 per ounce at the start of the year to nearly US$35 by the end of October. Since then, silver has largely stayed in the US$30 to US$32 range, briefly breaking US$34 mark in March.

The metal has seen some support in 2025 due to instability in global financial markets caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the threat of reciprocal import fees against key trading partners.

These foreign policy shifts by the world’s largest economy have created uncertainty for investors who have been increasingly looking to traditional safe havens like silver and gold to de-risk their portfolios.

However, today’s tariff turmoil overshadows a fundamental shift in the silver market over the past several years, which has seen industrial demand growth start to outpace traditional investment demand.

The most notable demand increase has been due to the energy transition and silver’s use in solar panels.

While firms like Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) have predicted that industrial demand will wane over the next few years, Catt’s panelists presented different points of view. Sprott said there will be further demand from the electric vehicle (EV) market as producers look to solid-state batteries, which are not only safer, but also quicker to charge.

“I think (solid-state batteries) will bring back EVs to being viewed as economic,’ he said. ‘Plus the whole processing of solar panels and generating electricity more and more inexpensively over time, it’s just going to make the demand for silver continue to rise here when we already have a shortfall,” he told listeners.

Baker pointed out that solar currently makes up 29 percent of silver’s total 1.2 billion ounces of annual demand, and noted that if that were to disappear, it would have a massive impact on the silver market. However, he also said that even if there were a significant policy shift in the US, there would still be considerable demand for solar worldwide.

“Even in the US, the policy really is ‘all of the above’ — all forms of energy. So I’m not concerned about solar cells diminishing. Could they go flat? Yeah, that’s fine. Flat at 300 million ounces? That’s great demand for silver,” he added.

While most solar demand comes from China, the panelists also discussed India’s growing role in the sector. The country has recently been working to increase domestic production of solar panels.

“(Prime Minister Narendra) Modi made a policy decision a year ago to grow the solar industry in India. So in India, only about 10 percent of their demand for silver is used for industrial purposes. In China, it’s 90 percent, and so what you’re going to have in India is you’re going to see their solar panel growth skyrocket,” Baker said.

Of course, demand isn’t the only factor influencing the silver industry.

Supply constraints have helped push the market into a structural deficit over the past several years.

Silver is primarily a by-product metal in the production of copper, nickel, zinc and gold, which makes it highly dependent on dynamics in those markets. As Baker pointed out, silver isn’t a significant source of revenue.

“So even if the price of silver rises significantly, they’re not going to change their operations because it’s not going to matter for a big copper producer,” he explained. Unless there are dramatic production swings for those commodities, supply and demand are unlikely to come into balance in the near term.

Silver price poised to break out?

Over the past year, silver has tested US$35 twice. Using technical analysis, Oliver compared this to how the silver price tested resistance at the US$26 level three times before breaking through.

What he’s seeing in momentum indicators now is similar to what happened at that time. In the lead up, momentum was flat, but once silver hit US$26, momentum saw an immediate 10 percent gain.

‘It came back up a third time to US$26, watch out. It blew your head off,’ he said. ‘Okay, you go back to US$35 again, and the price says, ‘You better watch out, I’m at a triple top, and if I go to US$36, it’s a triple-top breakout.”

“The only issue is now which week punches up there to that 10 percent over level. I think — who knows, it might even be tomorrow, but I think soon we’ll get up there,” Oliver said.

Silver price, May 15, 2022, to May 16, 2025.

Oliver went on to examine the gold-silver ratio, which he said could be suggesting a breakout is overdue. Traditionally, the ratio falls between 40 and 80 to 1, but it’s now closer to 100 to 1.

“I bet both of these metrics will pretty much coincide in terms of upturn, meaning not only a net price upturn in silver, but a relative performance upturn in silver versus gold, and I think that’ll shock people more than anything … especially if all of a sudden silver wakes up in a shocking, rapid way,’ Oliver noted.

‘That’s going to surprise most investors. I think it’s about to happen, the technicals are ripe.’

Silver market still facing manipulation

Addressing manipulation, Sprott suggested silver has been manipulated for the last half century.

‘I look at silver as a market that’s been manipulated for 50 years. We have about eight to 12 major international banks who are short over 500 million ounces of silver on the COMEX, have always been short that product,’ he said.

‘They always make stabs at knocking it down, trying to cover, but the shorts go back up.’

However, Sprott said as the price has gone from the US$20 range to closer to US$35 it has become more difficult for these banks to maintain their positions. “The same thing is true in gold, but in gold we all know that in the last year, when it broke through US$2,000 (per ounce) for the fourth time, it was over for the commercial banks,” he noted.

He went on to discuss how trading on the COMEX seems contrary to what is going on in other markets, saying that when international markets are open, gold and silver prices trade higher, but when the COMEX opens, they tend to fall.

“If you just traded COMEX and you bought silver at the starting value, it’d be worth about 2 or 3 percent of what it started at, whereas if you bought it in non-COMEX hours, it would be worth 600 percent more,’ Sprott said.

In his view, the suppression is ‘obvious.’ However, he predicts that the gold-silver ratio will correct in the near future, and the silver price will start to outperform gold.

What’s the outlook for the silver price?

For his part, Sprott sees the silver price going much higher.

“I’m sure we’re going to be through US$50. It used to trade at 15 to 1 to the price of gold. At today’s price of gold, that would be over US$200. I have no reason to think we’re not going there,” he said.

Oliver had a similar price prediction.

“I think the first surge could get you well above US$50. I think you’d get up in the US$60s and US$70s before you even pause, and I think it could occur rapidly,” he said. Oliver also explained that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin aren’t an alternative and appear more like a speculative bubble. Given the size of the US debt, Treasuries aren’t as attractive to investors, which is causing further compression in monetary metals markets.

Although Baker didn’t provide a price prediction, he did express support for a market driven by supply and demand fundamentals, saying that “this is a very, very unique time.”